Buyers cannot buy from local producers for less than €600/t. Distributors say psychologically the market is ready for the price change.

At the beginning of March, some EU steel mills withdrew their low-price offers for hot-rolled coil, indicating that consumers are ready for price increases.

According to traders, prices will rise by at least 20 euros/ton. "Psychologically, the market is ready for price changes," one of the traders said in a comment.

The market's readiness for higher prices for rolled products is due to consumer optimism and a softening decision by the European Commission. European Commission President von der Leyen announced on March 3 that the deadline for the entry into force of new CO2 emissions targets for cars would be extended. Previously, the new targets were expected to take effect in 2026. Now they have been postponed to 2028. Representatives of the European automotive industry welcomed the decision.

Hot-rolled coil prices rose by 10-20 euros/ton in February, reaching 600-605 euros/ton ex-works in southern Europe and 600-625 euros/ton ex-works in northern Europe. Based on this, the cost of this product is forecast to reach €620-640/t in the second quarter.

Higher prices for metallurgical raw materials could push up the cost of hot-rolled coil to €640-650 per tonne. However, large inventories accumulated in the first quarter will curb faster price increases.

Price dynamics will also be affected by foreign supplies, which are currently not subject to additional tariffs. In early March, hot-rolled coil import quotations were €550-560/tonne (CIF Italy). This is 7% lower than local producers. Cheaper options have hindered their demands. The situation will change if the European Commission imposes trade restrictions on imported steel. The European Steel Industry Association is actively lobbying for such measures.

Uncertainty about the global hot-rolled coil market in November 2024 is reported. Despite slight price increases in some regions, low demand and economic instability have curbed sales activity.